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Table 12 Last and End Boundary HPD intervals in TS2

From: Modelling medieval masonry construction: taxa-specific and habitat-contingent Bayesian techniques for the interpretation of radiocarbon data from Mortar-Entrapped Relict Limekiln Fuels

Dataset and model specifications Last HPD intervals and medians/cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement Indices
10yrs IAτ /15 dates (MR1a) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior; no Outlier Model 1 1240–1270 1230–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 104.1 97.8 0
2 1240–1275 1230–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 72.3 68.7 3
3 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 95.9 99.1 2
Exponential prior;
10-year Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 104.5 99.5 0
2 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 1245–1280 1230–1285 1260 76.3 73.1 3
3 1245–1270 1230–1280 1255 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 98.1 101.5 2
Uniform prior;
default Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1280 1230–1290 1260 1245–1280 1230–1295 1265 96.8 89.9 1
2 1250–1285 1230–1295 1265 1250–1285 1230–1300 1270 85.5 80 3
3 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 1245–1280 1230–1290 1260 100.1 104.2 2
10yrs IAτ /10 dates (MRR1a) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior;
no Outlier Model
1 1235–1270 1220–1275 1250 1235–1275 1220–1280 1255 101.8 100.6 0
2 1240–1275 1230–1280 1255 1240–1275 1230–1280 1260 129.8 130.7 0
3 1240–1270 1225–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1285 1255 92.8 93 0
Exponential prior;
10-year Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1285 1255 102.8 101.9 0
2 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1245–1280 1230–1285 1260 128.7 129.4 0
3 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 1245–1280 1230–1285 1260 94.9 95.3 0
Uniform prior;
default Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1240–1280 1225–1290 1260 1240–1285 1225–1305 1265 103.2 101.9 0
2 1245–1280 1230–1285 1265 1245–1280 1230–1295 1265 129.3 129.9 0
3 1245–1280 1230–1290 1260 1245–1285 1230–1300 1265 91.7 92.2 1
10yrs IAτ /5 dates (MRRR1a) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior;
no Outlier Model
1 1235–1275 1220–1280 1255 1235–1285 1220–1315 1260 95.5 95 0
2 1235–1275 1220–1285 1255 1235–1285 1220–1320 1260 93.8 94.6 0
3 1220–1260 1185–1280 1240 1220–1275 1180–1325 1250 104.1 104 0
Exponential prior; 10-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1240–1280 1225–1285 1260 1240–1285 1220–1320 1265 96.5 96.2 0
2 1240–1280 1225–1290 1260 1240–1285 1220–1325 1265 95 95.8 0
3 1220–1265 1190–1285 1245 1225–1280 1180–1330 1255 104.6 104.6 0
Uniform prior; default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1240–1285 1220–1310 1265 1235–1295 1220–1355 1275 97 96.3 0
2 1240–1285 1220–1315 1265 1240–1300 1220–1365 1275 97.3 97.7 0
3 1225–1275 1185–1315 1250 1225–1300 1185–1385 1270 109.4 108.7 0
Dataset and model specifications Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement indices
50yrs IAτ /15 dates (MR1b) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior;
no Outlier Model
1 1230–1265 1220–1275 1250 1235–1270 1225–1285 1255 104.5 104.2 0
2 1250–1280 1235–1285 1270 1255–1285 1235–1295 1270 100.8 99.4 0
3 1235–1285 1230–1285 1265 1240–1290 1230–1300 1270 90.9 85.2 0
Exponential prior;
50-year Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1240–1275 1225–1290 1255 1240–1280 1225–1295 1260 103.9 103.4 0
2 1255–1285 1240–1300 1270 1260–1295 1240–1310 1275 99.8 99.7 0
3 1245–1290 1230–1305 1270 1250–1295 1235–1310 1275 90.9 85.9 0
Uniform prior;
default Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1285 1230–1310 1265 1250–1295 1230–1330 1275 99.6 99.1 0
2 1260–1295 1245–1325 1280 1265–1310 1245–1350 1290 98.7 97.9 0
3 1260–1300 1235–1320 1280 1265–1310 1240–1340 1285 95.2 91.4 0
50yrs IAτ /10 dates (MRR1b) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior;
no Outlier Model
1 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 1245–1275 1225–1285 1260 121.1 121.3 0
2 1260–1285 1235–1290 1270 1260–1290 1235–1300 1275 98.6 92.7 0
3 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1250–1285 1230–1305 1265 92.7 92.1 0
Exponential prior;
50-year Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1275 1225–1285 1260 1245–1280 1225–1295 1265 118.9 118.9 0
2 1260–1295 1235–1305 1275 1260–1300 1240–1315 1280 96.8 92.3 0
3 1250–1280 1235–1295 1265 1250–1290 1235–1315 1275 91.5 90.8 0
Uniform prior;
default Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1285 1225–1305 1265 1245–1290 1225–1320 1270 108.6 108.7 0
2 1260–1300 1235–1320 1280 1260–1310 1235–1340 1285 85.1 80.4 1
3 1250–1295 1235–1340 1275 1255–1315 1240–1380 1290 81.6 79.1 0
50yrs IAτ /5 dates (MRRR1b) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential prior;
no Outlier Model
1 1235–1280 1225–1290 1260 1240–1305 1225–1395 1280 96.5 96.5 0
2 1225–1270 1215–1285 1245 1225–1285 1205–1350 1260 103.2 102.8 0
3 1225–1270 1190–1280 1245 1225–1285 1180–1345 1260 100.9 98.3 0
Exponential prior;
50-year Charcoal Outlier Model
1 1245–1290 1225–1315 1270 1245–1320 1225–1410 1290 97 97.1 0
2 1230–1280 1215–1305 1255 1230–1295 1215–1365 1270 105 104.9 0
3 1230–1275 1200–1305 1255 1230–1295 1185–1360 1265 100.8 99.1 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1240–1305 1225–1395 1280 1250–1360 1225–1535 1315 94.6 94.9 0
2 1230–1280 1215–1325 1260 1230–1305 1210–1400 1275 110 108.9 0
3 1225–1280 1185–1340 1260 1225–1320 1185–1435 1280 92.4 91.3 0
Dataset and model specifications Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement Indices
100yrs IAτ /15 dates (MR1c) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1245–1265 1230–1280 1260 1245–1280 1230–1290 1265 100.4 99.9 0
2 1225–1260 1215–1280 1245 1230–1275 1220–1305 1255 102.6 103.2 0
3 1180–1225 1165–1240 1200 1180–1225 1165–1245 1205 85.7 85.4 1
Exponential Prior/100-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1250–1285 1235–1295 1265 1250–1290 1235–1305 1270 99.8 99.4 0
2 1230–1280 1220–1310 1255 1240–1290 1225–1330 1270 102.9 103.3 0
3 1185–1235 1170–1260 1215 1190–1240 1170–1265 1215 91.5 91.3 1
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1255–1290 1235–1315 1275 1260–1300 1240–1335 1280 99.7 99 0
2 1245–1325 1225–1400 1290 1255–1345 1235–1435 1310 100.2 100.2 0
3 1195–1250 1175–1280 1225 1200–1260 1175–1295 1235 99.1 99.2 1
100yrs IAτ /10 dates (MRR1c) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1220–1260 1195–1280 1240 1225–1280 1190–1315 1255 101.4 100.3 0
2 1205–1250 1180–1270 1225 1210–1265 1180–1290 1235 94.6 96.5 0
3 1225–1265 1215–1280 1245 1230–1270 1210–1300 1250 100.6 98.3 0
Exponential Prior/100-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1225–1275 1200–1310 1250 1230–1295 1205–1340 1265 101.8 100.9 0
2 1215–1270 1185–1295 1240 1220–1280 1190–1315 1250 97.4 98.8 0
3 1230–1275 1215–1300 1255 1235–1280 1215–1315 1260 99.9 98.1 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1230–1295 1210–1370 1270 1240–1330 1215–1425 1290 102.1 101.6 0
2 1225–1290 1195–1345 1260 1230–1310 1195–1385 1275 99.6 100.3 0
3 1235–1285 1215–1330 1265 1240–1300 1215–1365 1275 84.4 84.1 1
100yrs IAτ /5 dates (MRRR1c) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1180–1235 1170–1265 1215 1185–1260 1165–1320 1225 86.6 86.4 0
2 1185–1260 1175–1270 1220 1190–1265 1170–1315 1230 97.9 98.2 0
3 1230–1295 1220–1305 1275 1240–1360 1225–1550 1310 100.1 100.4 0
Exponential Prior/100-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1195–1260 1170–1295 1225 1190–1275 1165–1350 1240 90.6 90.8 0
2 1205–1270 1175–1295 1235 1205–1285 1175–1340 1245 99.9 100.2 0
3 1235–1310 1220–1385 1285 1255–1385 1230–1570 1330 100.6 100.9 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1190–1260 1165–1310 1225 1190–1285 1165–1400 1245 87.8 87.3 0
2 1200–1270 1170–1315 1235 1195–1290 1170–1405 1255 93.1 94.6 0
3 1250–1380 1220–1520 1305 1270–1485 1235–1855 1390 99.5 99.6 0
Dataset and model specifications Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement indices
200yrs IAτ /15 dates (MR1d) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1070–1220 1060–1230 1175 1075–1235 1065–1250 1185 76.2 76.3 1
2 1220–1260 1215–1280 1245 1225–1275 1220–1300 1255 100.3 102.9 1
3 1215–1260 1190–1275 1235 1220–1280 1185–1315 1250 98.6 99.3 0
Exponential Prior/200-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1095–1255 1070–1270 1195 1090–1265 1070–1285 1205 80.3 80.1 1
2 1230–1280 1220–1310 1255 1235–1290 1225–1325 1265 103.1 105.3 0
3 1220–1270 1190–1300 1245 1225–1290 1200–1340 1260 99.8 100.2 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1175–1255 1115–1305 1215 1185–1280 1110–1340 1235 84.5 83.1 0
2 1245–1315 1230–1370 1285 1245–1320 1230–1385 1290 108.3 109.8 0
3 1245–1360 1215–1490 1310 1245–1385 1215–1545 1325 100.7 100.8 0
200yrs IAτ /10 dates (MRR1d) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1075–1220 1070–1220 1165 1075–1225 1065–1235 1175 92 90.4 0
2 1220–1260 1195–1275 1240 1220–1280 1190–1320 1255 98.8 97.9 0
3 1220–1265 1200–1280 1240 1225–1290 1190–1355 1265 99.6 98.7 0
Exponential Prior/200-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1135–1230 1070–1245 1180 1135–1240 1070–1260 1185 93.8 92.4 0
2 1220–1275 1195–1325 1255 1230–1300 1205–1350 1270 99.2 98.6 0
3 1225–1280 1195–1330 1255 1235–1310 1205–1385 1275 99.4 98.8 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1145–1245 1075–1275 1195 1150–1270 1075–1310 1205 92.4 91.2 0
2 1235–1315 1205–1395 1275 1245–1340 1210–1445 1295 97.8 97.4 0
3 1225–1285 1205–1360 1260 1245–1365 1215–1520 1315 99.5 99.3 0
200yrs IAτ /5 dates (MRRR1d) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1175–1255 1160–1270 1210 1185–1335 1125–1605 1270 99.6 99.3 0
2 1220–1275 1200–1285 1245 1225–1330 1190–1525 1290 96.2 96.4 0
3 990–1095 990–1150 1035 1000–1135 990–1325 1080 98.9 99 0
Exponential Prior/200-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1180–1270 1155–1400 1235 1200–1370 1160–1650 1300 99.7 99.5 0
2 1225–1290 1200–1395 1265 1235–1370 1205–1560 1310 97.2 97.3 0
3 995–1115 990–1200 1060 1015–1175 995–1345 1105 99.6 99.7 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1180–1335 1155–1620 1245 1210–1520 1165–2050 1385 99 98.8 0
2 1225–1320 1210–1455 1285 1245–1425 1210–1740 1345 96.8 96.9 0
3 1020–1150 990–1265 1085 1030–1230 995–1545 1155 98.4 98.5 0
Dataset and model specifications Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement indices
500yrs IAτ /15 dates (MR1e) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1155–1220 1070–1235 1180 1160–1260 1080–1315 1205 95.6 96.1 0
2 1220–1280 1180–1290 1245 1230–1325 1210–1445 1285 97.6 97.7 0
3 1180–1245 1165–1270 1250 1195–1285 1170–1370 1250 97.3 97.2 0
Exponential Prior/500-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1155–1240 1085–1285 1195 1170–1280 1100–1355 1225 96.3 96.8 0
2 1225–1305 1205–1435 1275 1240–1375 1220–1510 1320 98.5 98.5 0
3 1190–1270 1160–1340 1235 1205–1315 1175–1420 1270 97.7 97.7 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1190–1375 1130–1560 1295 1210–1440 1125–1655 1335 97.6 97.7 0
2 1225–1460 1215–1730 1365 1280–1610 1235–1955 1475 99.2 99.1 0
3 1195–1290 1170–1430 1255 1230–1500 1185–1815 1385 98.1 98.1 0
500yrs IAτ /10 dates (MRR1e) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1075–1180 1060–1215 1135 1105–1230 1060–1330 1175 105 104.8 0
2 1175–1255 1165–1265 1215 1195–1300 1165–1435 1255 101.8 101.6 0
3 1170–1230 1130–1275 1205 1185–1295 1095–1430 1245 100 99.2 0
Exponential Prior/500-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1100–1210 1055–1275 1160 1115–1265 1070–1385 1200 104.5 104.3 0
2 1190–1265 1165–1330 1230 1205–1330 1170–1470 1275 101.6 101.4 0
3 1175–1270 1075–1420 1230 1195–1345 1145–1515 1275 99.6 99 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1120–1230 1065–1370 1180 1150–1500 1090–1980 1350 101.4 101.4 0
2 1180–1295 1160–1525 1250 1215–1490 1180–1870 1375 99.1 99.1 0
3 1180–1285 1160–1405 1245 1215–1440 1170–1735 1350 99.8 99.6 0
500yrs IAτ /5 dates (MRRR1e) Run 68% 95% median 68% 95% median Amodel Aoverall Ai < 60%
Exponential Prior/no Outlier Model 1 1050–1225 1040–1265 1180 1075–1495 1050–2100 1325 97.1 97.1 0
2 1155–1220 1060–1230 1180 1150–1455 1065–1985 1305 98.5 98.4 0
3 1080–1155 1030–1170 1115 1080–1280 1035–1605 1190 100.3 100.2 0
Exponential Prior/500-year Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1055–1260 1045–1370 1200 1140–1555 1055–2115 1365 97.4 97.4 0
2 1135–1260 1055–1430 1205 1165–1515 1080–2050 1355 98.7 98.6 0
3 1075–1190 1030–1325 1140 1100–1330 1045–1660 1230 100.1 100.1 0
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal Outlier Model 1 1055–1285 1040–1505 1210 1160–1790 1070–3010 1505 97.6 97.6 0
2 1130–1345 1060–1650 1230 1180–1805 1125–2990 1535 98.5 98.5 0
3 1075–1220 1030–1420 1155 1110–1465 1050–2025 1310 99.8 99.8 0
  1. All HPD intervals and medians are rounded out to 5 years. Inaccurate date ranges (not including the true event date of 1250 AD) are presented in bold emphasis