Table 14 Average precision of Last and End Boundary HPD intervals in TS2 (summarised from Table 12)
Specified dataset IAÏ„ and model specification | Average precision of Last HPD intervals /years | Average precision of End Boundary HPD intervals/years | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 dates | 10 dates | 5 dates | 15 dates | 10 dates | 5 dates | |
10Â years IAÏ„ | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) |
Exp. Prior/no Outlier Model | 32 (50) | 33 (53) | 40 (73) | 33 (53) | 37 (57) | 52 (113) |
Exp. Prior/10-year Charcoal | 28 (52) | 32 (53) | 42 (73) | 32 (53) | 35 (57) | 48 (118) |
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal | 33 (60) | 37 (60) | 47 (105) | 35 (65) | 40 (72) | 65 (160) |
50Â years IAÏ„ | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) |
Exp. Prior/no Outlier Model | 32 (52) | 28 (52) | 45 (75) | 38 (63) | 32 (67) | 62 (160) |
Exp. Prior/50-year Charcoal | 37 (67) | 32 (63) | 47 (92) | 40 (72) | 38 (75) | 68 (170) |
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal | 38 (82) | 42 (90) | 57 (145) | 45 (102) | 52 (113) | 93 (250) |
100Â years IAÏ„ | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) |
Exp, Prior/no Outlier Model | 33 (63) | 42 (83) | 65 (92) | 42 (75) | 50 (108) | 90 (208) |
Exp. Prior/100-year Charcoal | 45 (80) | 50 (102) | 68 (137) | 47 (90) | 57 (120) | 98 (230) |
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal | 57 (120) | 60 (142) | 90 (197) | 63 (140) | 77 (183) | 135 (363) |
200Â years IAÏ„ | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) |
Exp. Prior/no Outlier Model | 78 (107) | 77 (103) | 80 (118) | 90 (132) | 92 (155) | 130 (383) |
Exp. Prior/200-year Charcoal | 87 (133) | 68 (147) | 92 (217) | 98 (152) | 83 (172) | 155 (398) |
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal | 88 (202) | 80 (182) | 127 (328) | 103 (238) | 112 (258) | 230 (655) |
500Â years IAÏ„ | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) |
Exp. Prior/no Outlier Model | 63 (127) | 82 (133) | 105 (178) | 95 (223) | 113 (292) | 308 (847) |
Exp. Prior/500-year Charcoal | 82 (203) | 93 (243) | 148 (332) | 118 (263) | 142 (328) | 331 (882) |
Uniform Prior/default Charcoal | 172 (402) | 110 (305) | 197 (482) | 277 (627) | 283 (715) | 537 (1593) |