Specified dataset IAÏ„ and code | Run | Earliest simulated date (95% confidence) | Latest simulated date (95% confidence) | Accurate dates | Dataset range (95% probability) | Mean lifespan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 years IAτ M1a | 1 | 1050–1280 cal AD (M9a) | 1220–1380 cal AD (M4a) | 20 | − 35–225 years | 1242 cal AD |
2 | 1040–1220 cal AD (M3a) | 1220–1380 cal AD (M4a) | 19 | 20–250 years | 1224 cal AD | |
3 | 1040–1230 cal AD (M12a) | 1220–1300 (M15a) | 18 | 15–235 years | 1225 cal AD | |
4 | 1040–1230 cal AD (M14a) | 1210–1290 cal AD (M16a) | 19 | 10–230 years | 1224 cal AD | |
Mean Average 10 years IAτ | 19 | 5–235 years | 1229 cal AD | |||
50 years IAτ M1b | 1 | 990–1160 cal AD (M9b) | 1220–1300 cal AD (M14b) | 11 | 85–290 years | 1180 cal AD |
2 | 970–1160 cal AD (M14b) | 1220–1390 cal AD (M15b) | 13 | 120–385 years | 1181 cal AD | |
3 | 1020–1210 cal AD (M11b) | 1220–1300 cal AD (M9b) | 16 | 55–250 years | 1193 cal AD | |
4 | 890–1120 cal AD (M14b) | 1210–1290 cal AD (M13b) | 13 | 160–380 years | 1177 cal AD | |
Mean Average 50 years IAτ | 13 | 105–325 years | 1183 cal AD | |||
100 years IAτ M1c | 1 | 990–1160 cal AD (M4c) | 1220–1380 cal AD (M16c) | 16 | 80–280 years | 1199 cal AD |
2 | 680–950 cal AD (M4c) | 1210–1290 cal AD (M9c) | 9 | 310–570 years | 1145 cal AD | |
3 | 410–570 cal AD (M3c) | 1180–1290 cal AD (M18c) | 10 | 670–845 years | 1127 cal AD | |
4 | 770–980 cal AD (M17c) | 1210–1290 cal AD (M3c) | 11 | 260–500 years | 1151 cal AD | |
Mean average 100 years IAτ | 11.5 | 330–550 years | 1156 cal AD | |||
200 years IAτ M1d | 1 | 400–560 cal AD (M3d) | 1210–1290 cal AD (M18d) | 6 | 680–865 years | 982 cal AD |
2 | 670–880 cal AD (M2d) | 1160–1280 cal AD (M7d) | 4 | 315–575 years | 1062 cal AD | |
3 | 560–660 cal AD (M6d) | 1180–1290 cal AD (M12d) | 5 | 570–710 years | 1025 cal AD | |
4 | 680–950 cal AD (M5d) | 1170–1290 cal AD (M18d) | 5 | 300–560 years | 1086 cal AD | |
Mean Average 200 years IAτ | 5 | 465–680 years | 1039 cal AD | |||
500 years IAτ M1e | 1 | 2270–1980 cal BC (M14e) | 1160–1280 cal AD (M12e) | 2 | 3205–3465 years | 606 cal AD |
2 | 1270–1010 cal BC (M10e) | 1160–1280 cal AD (M11e) | 4 | 2245–2520 years | 762 cal AD | |
3 | 360–40 cal BC (M14e) | 1220–1390 cal AD (M5e) | 3 | 1315–1640 years | 780 cal AD | |
4 | 1950–1740 cal BC (M1e) | 1150–1280 cal AD (M10e) | 1 | 2920–3190 years | 491 cal AD | |
Mean Average 500 years IAτ | 2.5 | 2420–2705 years | 670 cal AD |