Table 32 Accuracy of different model specs and dataset sizes in TS1 and TS2 (from Tables 5 and 13)
Model specification | Last | End Boundary | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 date | 10 date | 5 date | 20 date | 15 date | 10 date | 5 date | |
exponential prior/no outlier | 12/15 (12/15) | 11/15 (13/15) | 10/15 (12/15) | 17/20 (20/20) | 12/15 (14/15) | 12/15 (14/15) | 14/15 (15/15) |
exponential prior/ Charcoal Outlier | 12/15 (15/15) | 12/15 (14/15) | 13/15 (14/15) | 18/20 (20/20) | 13/15 (15/15) | 13/15 (15/15) | 13/15 (15/15) |
uniform prior/ Charcoal Outlier | 14/15 (15/15) | 12/15 (15/15) | 13/15 (15/15) | 14/20 (19/20) | 10/15 (15/15) | 13/15 (15/15) | 13/15 (15/15) |
Totals 68% | 38/45 84% | 35/45 78% | 36/45 80% | 49/60 82% | 35/45 78% | 38/45 84% | 40/45 89% |
Totals 95% | 42/45 93% | 42/45 93% | 41/45 91% | 59/60 98% | 44/45 98% | 44/45 98% | 45/45 100% |