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Table 4 Last and End Boundary HPD intervals in TS1

From: Modelling medieval masonry construction: taxa-specific and habitat-contingent Bayesian techniques for the interpretation of radiocarbon data from Mortar-Entrapped Relict Limekiln Fuels

Dataset and model specification Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD Agreement Indices
10yrs IAτ (M1a) Run 68% 95% Median 68% 95% Median Amodel Aoverall Ai ≤ 60%
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1235–1275 1230–1280 1265 127.1 124 0
  2 - - - 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 80.2 69 1
  3 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 1240–1270 1225–1280 1255 100.9 91.5 0
  4 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 107.8 97.6 0
Exponential prior; 10-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1240–1280 1235–1285 1265 130.6 126.8 0
  2 - - - 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 81.3 71.7 1
  3 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 101.8 94.1 0
  4 1240–1270 1230–1280 1255 1240–1275 1230–1280 1255 108.3 99.9 0
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1240–1280 1235–1285 1270 132.1 128.1 0
  2 - - - 1245–1280 1230–1285 1260 84.7 75.6 1
  3 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 104.7 98.2 0
  4 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 111.2 104.3 0
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1235–1280 1230–1285 1265 129.9 125.2 0
  2 - - - 1240–1280 1225–1285 1260 86.4 61.8 2
  3 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1285 1260 94 72.7 3
  4 1240–1270 1225–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 97.8 78 2
Uniform prior; 10-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1240–1285 1235–1290 1270 131.1 126.4 0
  2 - - - 1245–1280 1230–1290 1260 87.1 67.9 2
  3 1240–1275 1230–1285 1260 1240–1275 1230–1285 1260 91.3 76 2
  4 1240–1275 1225–1280 1255 1240–1275 1225–1285 1260 97.3 83 2
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1255–1285 1235–1290 1270 134 129.1 0
  2 - - - 1245–1285 1230–1295 1265 90.8 75.4 1
  3 1245–1280 1230–1290 1265 1245–1280 1230–1295 1265 100.1 89.2 0
  4 1245–1275 1230–1285 1260 1245–1280 1230–1290 1260 105.8 95.3 0
50yrs IAτ (M1b) Run 68% 95% Median 68% 95% Median Amodel Aoverall Ai ≤ 60%
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1240–1275 1230–1285 1255 92.5 91 0
  2 - - - 1230–1265 1225–1285 1250 73.6 73.7 1
  3 1220–1250 1220–1270 1240 1220–1255 1220–1275 1240 94.5 91.2 0
  4 1235–1265 1225–1275 1250 1235–1270 1225–1280 1250 115.2 114.3 0
Exponential prior; 50-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1285 1235–1300 1265 92.9 91.2 0
  2 - - - 1235–1275 1230–1295 1260 78.5 78 1
  3 1225–1260 1220–1280 1245 1225–1260 1220–1280 1245 96 93.8 0
  4 1240–1270 1230–1285 1255 1240–1275 1230–1290 1260 113.8 112.9 0
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1285 1235–1300 1265 93.2 91.7 0
  2 - - - 1240–1280 1230–1300 1260 80.2 79.8 1
  3 1225–1260 1220–1280 1245 1225–1265 1220–1280 1250 96.5 94.5 0
  4 1240–1275 1230–1290 1260 1240–1280 1230–1290 1260 114.2 113.5 0
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1255–1290 1235–1305 1270 89.7 88.5 0
  2 - - - 1245–1290 1230–1305 1270 76.5 75.2 2
  3 1225–1260 1220–1275 1245 1225–1265 1220–1285 1250 83.6 79.2 2
  4 1240–1270 1230–1280 1255 1240–1275 1230–1290 1260 57.7 58.9 1
Uniform prior; 50-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1255–1295 1235–1315 1275 89.1 87.8 0
  2 - - - 1250–1300 1235–1320 1275 81.6 80.6 2
  3 1230–1270 1220–1285 1250 1230–1270 1220–1290 1255 88.8 85.5 2
  4 1245–1280 1230–1295 1265 1245–1285 1230–1305 1265 93 92.1 1
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1255–1295 1240–1320 1280 90.6 89.4 0
  2 - - - 1250–1300 1235–1320 1280 84.3 83.6 2
  3 1230–1270 1220–1285 1250 1230–1270 1225–1290 1255 88.6 85.5 2
  4 1245–1285 1230–1305 1265 1250–1290 1235–1315 1270 102.2 101.5 1
100yrs IAτ (M1c) Run 68% 95% Median 68% 95% Median Amodel Aoverall Ai ≤ 60%
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1240–1275 1230–1280 1255 99.1 98 0
  2 - - - 1235–1270 1225–1285 1255 108.8 108.5 0
  3 1240–1270 1225–1275 1255 1245–1275 1225–1290 1260 107.6 107.4 0
  4 1230–1265 1220–1275 1245 1235–1270 1225–1280 1250 98.2 97 0
Exponential prior; 100-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1280 1230–1295 1265 101.1 99.7 0
  2 - - - 1240–1280 1230–1300 1260 108.9 108.4 0
  3 1245–1275 1225–1295 1260 1245–1285 1230–1305 1265 106.7 106.6 0
  4 1235–1275 1225–1290 1260 1240–1280 1225–1300 1260 97.6 96.4 0
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1280 1235–1290 1265 100.9 99.8 0
  2 - - - 1245–1280 1230–1300 1265 108.9 108.8 0
  3 1245–1275 1225–1295 1260 1245–1285 1230–1305 1265 106.8 106.6 0
  4 1240–1275 1225–1295 1260 1240–1280 1225–1300 1265 97.7 96.7 0
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1240–1285 1225–1295 1260 82.6 70.4 2
  2 - - - 1250–1290 1235–1320 1275 69.3 70 1
  3 1250–1275 1240–1280 1265 1255–1315 1240–1385 1285 94.8 94.8 0
  4 1245–1275 1230–1280 1260 1250–1290 1230–1315 1270 85.2 85 1
Uniform prior; 100-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1250–1290 1235–1310 1270 96.5 92.9 0
  2 - - - 1245–1295 1230–1330 1275 107.9 107.2 0
  3 1250–1290 1235–1320 1270 1250–1295 1230–1325 1275 104.3 103.8 0
  4 1245–1290 1230–1320 1270 1250–1300 1230–1335 1275 93.3 92.3 0
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal 1 - - - 1250–1290 1235–1310 1270 96.3 92.5 0
  2 - - - 1250–1300 1235–1335 1280 108.1 107.8 0
  3 1255–1305 1240–1345 1285 1255–1310 1240–1350 1285 105 104.8 0
  4 1250–1300 1230–1330 1280 1255–1310 1235–1345 1285 95 94.1 0
200yrs IAτ (M1d) Run 68% 95% Median 68% 95% Median Amodel Aoverall Ai ≤ 60%
Exponential prior; no Outlier Model 1 - - - 1220–1270 1190–1300 1245 96.5 96.7 0
2 - - - 1175–1220 1155–1250 1200 97.8 95.6 0
3 1220–1260 1200–1275 1235 1225–1270 1200–1300 1250 98.3 97.3 0
4 1185–1230 1170–1250 1210 1190–1235 1175–1260 1215 83.9 84.3 1
Exponential prior; 200-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1225–1285 1195–1330 1255 97.5 97 0
2 - - - 1180–1240 1160–1285 1210 97.9 95.7 0
3 1225–1275 1200–1320 1255 1230–1290 1210–1335 1265 98.9 98.3 0
4 1200–1260 1180–1280 1225 1200–1260 1185–1285 1235 89.8 89.8 1
Exponential prior; default Charcoal 1 - - - 1230–1295 1200–1340 1265 97.5 97.6 0
2 - - - 1185–1240 1165–1285 1215 98.2 96.3 0
3 1225–1270 1210–1300 1250 1230–1285 1215–1320 1260 99.2 98.8 0
4 1195–1255 1180–1285 1230 1200–1260 1180–1290 1235 90 90.1 1
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1230–1300 1205–1370 1270 97.9 98.1 0
  2 - - - 1190–1250 1170–1290 1225 91.6 90.3 0
  3 1230–1270 1215–1280 1250 1235–1300 1215–1365 1270 102.3 102 0
  4 1205–1255 1180–1270 1225 1210–1270 1180–1300 1240 76.4 76 1
Uniform prior; 200-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1350 1220–1450 1305 97.4 97.3 0
  2 - - - 1190–1265 1170–1315 1235 95.8 94.5 0
  3 1235–1300 1215–1375 1270 1245–1335 1225–1420 1295 100 99.6 0
  4 1220–1280 1190–1320 1250 1225–1295 1195–1345 1265 91.7 92.1 0
Uniform prior; default Charcoal 1 - - - 1250–1355 1225–1425 1305 98.3 98.3 0
  2 - - - 1205–1275 1175–1335 1240 92.4 91.4 0
500yrs IAτ (M1e) Run 68% 95% Median 68% 95% Median Amodel Aoverall Ai ≤ 60%
exponential prior; no Outlier Model 1 -   - 1225–1300 1190–1370 1265 98 97.4 0
  2 -   - 1225–1290 1195–1345 1260 99.2 98.8 0
  3 1230–1295 1225–1300 1270 1255–1325 1225–1375 1290 97.4 97.2 0
  4 1160–1230 1120–1265 1190 1170–1275 1120–1355 1225 95.4 95.9 0
Exponential prior; 500-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1235–1325 1200–1405 1285 98.4 97.9 0
  2 - - - 1230–1310 1205–1375 1275 99 98.7 0
  3 1255–1335 1225–1405 1295 1270–1365 1235–1440 1320 98.8 98.7 0
  4 1165–1255 1110–1350 1210 1180–1300 1135–1420 1250 96.6 97.2 0
Exponential prior; default Charcoal 1 - - - 1235–1325 1200–1400 1280 98.1 97.8 0
2 - - - 1230–1315 1205–1395 1280 99 98.7 0
3 1245–1335 1225–1415 1295 1270–1365 1235–1450 1320 98.6 98.6 0
4 1165–1260 1115–1345 1215 1180–1305 1140–1420 1250 96.6 97.1 0
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model 1 - - - 1230–1430 1205–1740 1345 99.2 99.1 0
  2 - - - 1235–1380 1205–1605 1315 96.9 96.8 0
  3 1260–1295 1225–1305 1275 1265–1370 1230–1500 1320 98 98.1 0
  4 1170–1255 1150–1275 1210 1185–1385 1150–1665 1300 98.8 99 0
Uniform prior; 500-year Charcoal 1 - - - 1260–1585 1220–1870 1450 99.6 99.5 0
  2 - - - 1270–1460 1240–1685 1375 98.1 98 0
  3 1270–1405 1235–1535 1350 1300–1455 1265–1605 1390 99.6 99.7 0
  4 1170–1285 1145–1490 1245 1215–1495 1170–1795 1375 99.8 99.8 0
Uniform prior; default Charcoal 1 - - - 1245–1470 1215–1790 1375 99.4 99.4 0
2 - - - 1265–1485 1230–1685 1405 97.5 97.6 0
3 1270–1410 1235–1535 1350 1295–1460 1265–1605 1395 99.5 99.5 0
4 1165–1350 1140–1625 1260 1220–1540 1175–1905 1405 99.6 99.8 0
  1. HPD intervals and median dates are rounded out to 5 years. Inaccurate HPD intervals (not including the 1250 AD true event date) and agreement indices less than 60% are reported in bold emphasis