Dataset and model specification | Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD | End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD | Agreement Indices | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10yrs IAτ (M1a) | Run | 68% | 95% | Median | 68% | 95% | Median | Amodel | Aoverall | Ai ≤ 60% |
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1235–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1265 | 127.1 | 124 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1240–1275 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 80.2 | 69 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1275 | 1255 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 100.9 | 91.5 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1275 | 1255 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1275 | 1255 | 107.8 | 97.6 | 0 |
Exponential prior; 10-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1280 | 1235–1285 | 1265 | 130.6 | 126.8 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 81.3 | 71.7 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1260 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1260 | 101.8 | 94.1 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1240–1270 | 1230–1280 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1255 | 108.3 | 99.9 | 0 |
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1280 | 1235–1285 | 1270 | 132.1 | 128.1 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1280 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 84.7 | 75.6 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 104.7 | 98.2 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1260 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 111.2 | 104.3 | 0 |
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1235–1280 | 1230–1285 | 1265 | 129.9 | 125.2 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1240–1280 | 1225–1285 | 1260 | 86.4 | 61.8 | 2 |
 | 3 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1285 | 1260 | 94 | 72.7 | 3 |
 | 4 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 97.8 | 78 | 2 |
Uniform prior; 10-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1285 | 1235–1290 | 1270 | 131.1 | 126.4 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1280 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 87.1 | 67.9 | 2 |
 | 3 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 91.3 | 76 | 2 |
 | 4 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1280 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1285 | 1260 | 97.3 | 83 | 2 |
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1255–1285 | 1235–1290 | 1270 | 134 | 129.1 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1285 | 1230–1295 | 1265 | 90.8 | 75.4 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1245–1280 | 1230–1290 | 1265 | 1245–1280 | 1230–1295 | 1265 | 100.1 | 89.2 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1260 | 1245–1280 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 105.8 | 95.3 | 0 |
50yrs IAτ (M1b) | Run | 68% | 95% | Median | 68% | 95% | Median | Amodel | Aoverall | Ai ≤ 60% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1275 | 1230–1285 | 1255 | 92.5 | 91 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1230–1265 | 1225–1285 | 1250 | 73.6 | 73.7 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1220–1250 | 1220–1270 | 1240 | 1220–1255 | 1220–1275 | 1240 | 94.5 | 91.2 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1235–1265 | 1225–1275 | 1250 | 1235–1270 | 1225–1280 | 1250 | 115.2 | 114.3 | 0 |
Exponential prior; 50-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1285 | 1235–1300 | 1265 | 92.9 | 91.2 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1235–1275 | 1230–1295 | 1260 | 78.5 | 78 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1225–1260 | 1220–1280 | 1245 | 1225–1260 | 1220–1280 | 1245 | 96 | 93.8 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1240–1270 | 1230–1285 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 113.8 | 112.9 | 0 |
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1285 | 1235–1300 | 1265 | 93.2 | 91.7 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1240–1280 | 1230–1300 | 1260 | 80.2 | 79.8 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1225–1260 | 1220–1280 | 1245 | 1225–1265 | 1220–1280 | 1250 | 96.5 | 94.5 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 1240–1280 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 114.2 | 113.5 | 0 |
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1255–1290 | 1235–1305 | 1270 | 89.7 | 88.5 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1290 | 1230–1305 | 1270 | 76.5 | 75.2 | 2 |
 | 3 | 1225–1260 | 1220–1275 | 1245 | 1225–1265 | 1220–1285 | 1250 | 83.6 | 79.2 | 2 |
 | 4 | 1240–1270 | 1230–1280 | 1255 | 1240–1275 | 1230–1290 | 1260 | 57.7 | 58.9 | 1 |
Uniform prior; 50-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1255–1295 | 1235–1315 | 1275 | 89.1 | 87.8 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1250–1300 | 1235–1320 | 1275 | 81.6 | 80.6 | 2 |
 | 3 | 1230–1270 | 1220–1285 | 1250 | 1230–1270 | 1220–1290 | 1255 | 88.8 | 85.5 | 2 |
 | 4 | 1245–1280 | 1230–1295 | 1265 | 1245–1285 | 1230–1305 | 1265 | 93 | 92.1 | 1 |
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1255–1295 | 1240–1320 | 1280 | 90.6 | 89.4 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1250–1300 | 1235–1320 | 1280 | 84.3 | 83.6 | 2 |
 | 3 | 1230–1270 | 1220–1285 | 1250 | 1230–1270 | 1225–1290 | 1255 | 88.6 | 85.5 | 2 |
 | 4 | 1245–1285 | 1230–1305 | 1265 | 1250–1290 | 1235–1315 | 1270 | 102.2 | 101.5 | 1 |
100yrs IAτ (M1c) | Run | 68% | 95% | Median | 68% | 95% | Median | Amodel | Aoverall | Ai ≤ 60% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exponential prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1255 | 99.1 | 98 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1235–1270 | 1225–1285 | 1255 | 108.8 | 108.5 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1240–1270 | 1225–1275 | 1255 | 1245–1275 | 1225–1290 | 1260 | 107.6 | 107.4 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1230–1265 | 1220–1275 | 1245 | 1235–1270 | 1225–1280 | 1250 | 98.2 | 97 | 0 |
Exponential prior; 100-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1280 | 1230–1295 | 1265 | 101.1 | 99.7 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1240–1280 | 1230–1300 | 1260 | 108.9 | 108.4 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1245–1275 | 1225–1295 | 1260 | 1245–1285 | 1230–1305 | 1265 | 106.7 | 106.6 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1235–1275 | 1225–1290 | 1260 | 1240–1280 | 1225–1300 | 1260 | 97.6 | 96.4 | 0 |
Exponential prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1280 | 1235–1290 | 1265 | 100.9 | 99.8 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1280 | 1230–1300 | 1265 | 108.9 | 108.8 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1245–1275 | 1225–1295 | 1260 | 1245–1285 | 1230–1305 | 1265 | 106.8 | 106.6 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1240–1275 | 1225–1295 | 1260 | 1240–1280 | 1225–1300 | 1265 | 97.7 | 96.7 | 0 |
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1240–1285 | 1225–1295 | 1260 | 82.6 | 70.4 | 2 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1250–1290 | 1235–1320 | 1275 | 69.3 | 70 | 1 |
 | 3 | 1250–1275 | 1240–1280 | 1265 | 1255–1315 | 1240–1385 | 1285 | 94.8 | 94.8 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1245–1275 | 1230–1280 | 1260 | 1250–1290 | 1230–1315 | 1270 | 85.2 | 85 | 1 |
Uniform prior; 100-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1250–1290 | 1235–1310 | 1270 | 96.5 | 92.9 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1245–1295 | 1230–1330 | 1275 | 107.9 | 107.2 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1250–1290 | 1235–1320 | 1270 | 1250–1295 | 1230–1325 | 1275 | 104.3 | 103.8 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1245–1290 | 1230–1320 | 1270 | 1250–1300 | 1230–1335 | 1275 | 93.3 | 92.3 | 0 |
Uniform prior; Default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1250–1290 | 1235–1310 | 1270 | 96.3 | 92.5 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1250–1300 | 1235–1335 | 1280 | 108.1 | 107.8 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1255–1305 | 1240–1345 | 1285 | 1255–1310 | 1240–1350 | 1285 | 105 | 104.8 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1250–1300 | 1230–1330 | 1280 | 1255–1310 | 1235–1345 | 1285 | 95 | 94.1 | 0 |
200yrs IAτ (M1d) | Run | 68% | 95% | Median | 68% | 95% | Median | Amodel | Aoverall | Ai ≤ 60% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exponential prior; no Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1220–1270 | 1190–1300 | 1245 | 96.5 | 96.7 | 0 |
2 | - | - | - | 1175–1220 | 1155–1250 | 1200 | 97.8 | 95.6 | 0 | |
3 | 1220–1260 | 1200–1275 | 1235 | 1225–1270 | 1200–1300 | 1250 | 98.3 | 97.3 | 0 | |
4 | 1185–1230 | 1170–1250 | 1210 | 1190–1235 | 1175–1260 | 1215 | 83.9 | 84.3 | 1 | |
Exponential prior; 200-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1225–1285 | 1195–1330 | 1255 | 97.5 | 97 | 0 |
2 | - | - | - | 1180–1240 | 1160–1285 | 1210 | 97.9 | 95.7 | 0 | |
3 | 1225–1275 | 1200–1320 | 1255 | 1230–1290 | 1210–1335 | 1265 | 98.9 | 98.3 | 0 | |
4 | 1200–1260 | 1180–1280 | 1225 | 1200–1260 | 1185–1285 | 1235 | 89.8 | 89.8 | 1 | |
Exponential prior; default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1230–1295 | 1200–1340 | 1265 | 97.5 | 97.6 | 0 |
2 | - | - | - | 1185–1240 | 1165–1285 | 1215 | 98.2 | 96.3 | 0 | |
3 | 1225–1270 | 1210–1300 | 1250 | 1230–1285 | 1215–1320 | 1260 | 99.2 | 98.8 | 0 | |
4 | 1195–1255 | 1180–1285 | 1230 | 1200–1260 | 1180–1290 | 1235 | 90 | 90.1 | 1 | |
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1230–1300 | 1205–1370 | 1270 | 97.9 | 98.1 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1190–1250 | 1170–1290 | 1225 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1230–1270 | 1215–1280 | 1250 | 1235–1300 | 1215–1365 | 1270 | 102.3 | 102 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1205–1255 | 1180–1270 | 1225 | 1210–1270 | 1180–1300 | 1240 | 76.4 | 76 | 1 |
Uniform prior; 200-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1350 | 1220–1450 | 1305 | 97.4 | 97.3 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1190–1265 | 1170–1315 | 1235 | 95.8 | 94.5 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1235–1300 | 1215–1375 | 1270 | 1245–1335 | 1225–1420 | 1295 | 100 | 99.6 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1220–1280 | 1190–1320 | 1250 | 1225–1295 | 1195–1345 | 1265 | 91.7 | 92.1 | 0 |
Uniform prior; default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1250–1355 | 1225–1425 | 1305 | 98.3 | 98.3 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1205–1275 | 1175–1335 | 1240 | 92.4 | 91.4 | 0 |
500yrs IAτ (M1e) | Run | 68% | 95% | Median | 68% | 95% | Median | Amodel | Aoverall | Ai ≤ 60% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
exponential prior; no Outlier Model | 1 | - |  | - | 1225–1300 | 1190–1370 | 1265 | 98 | 97.4 | 0 |
 | 2 | - |  | - | 1225–1290 | 1195–1345 | 1260 | 99.2 | 98.8 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1230–1295 | 1225–1300 | 1270 | 1255–1325 | 1225–1375 | 1290 | 97.4 | 97.2 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1160–1230 | 1120–1265 | 1190 | 1170–1275 | 1120–1355 | 1225 | 95.4 | 95.9 | 0 |
Exponential prior; 500-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1235–1325 | 1200–1405 | 1285 | 98.4 | 97.9 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1230–1310 | 1205–1375 | 1275 | 99 | 98.7 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1255–1335 | 1225–1405 | 1295 | 1270–1365 | 1235–1440 | 1320 | 98.8 | 98.7 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1165–1255 | 1110–1350 | 1210 | 1180–1300 | 1135–1420 | 1250 | 96.6 | 97.2 | 0 |
Exponential prior; default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1235–1325 | 1200–1400 | 1280 | 98.1 | 97.8 | 0 |
2 | - | - | - | 1230–1315 | 1205–1395 | 1280 | 99 | 98.7 | 0 | |
3 | 1245–1335 | 1225–1415 | 1295 | 1270–1365 | 1235–1450 | 1320 | 98.6 | 98.6 | 0 | |
4 | 1165–1260 | 1115–1345 | 1215 | 1180–1305 | 1140–1420 | 1250 | 96.6 | 97.1 | 0 | |
Uniform prior; No Outlier Model | 1 | - | - | - | 1230–1430 | 1205–1740 | 1345 | 99.2 | 99.1 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1235–1380 | 1205–1605 | 1315 | 96.9 | 96.8 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1260–1295 | 1225–1305 | 1275 | 1265–1370 | 1230–1500 | 1320 | 98 | 98.1 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1170–1255 | 1150–1275 | 1210 | 1185–1385 | 1150–1665 | 1300 | 98.8 | 99 | 0 |
Uniform prior; 500-year Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1260–1585 | 1220–1870 | 1450 | 99.6 | 99.5 | 0 |
 | 2 | - | - | - | 1270–1460 | 1240–1685 | 1375 | 98.1 | 98 | 0 |
 | 3 | 1270–1405 | 1235–1535 | 1350 | 1300–1455 | 1265–1605 | 1390 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 0 |
 | 4 | 1170–1285 | 1145–1490 | 1245 | 1215–1495 | 1170–1795 | 1375 | 99.8 | 99.8 | 0 |
Uniform prior; default Charcoal | 1 | - | - | - | 1245–1470 | 1215–1790 | 1375 | 99.4 | 99.4 | 0 |
2 | - | - | - | 1265–1485 | 1230–1685 | 1405 | 97.5 | 97.6 | 0 | |
3 | 1270–1410 | 1235–1535 | 1350 | 1295–1460 | 1265–1605 | 1395 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 0 | |
4 | 1165–1350 | 1140–1625 | 1260 | 1220–1540 | 1175–1905 | 1405 | 99.6 | 99.8 | 0 |