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Table 4 Last and End Boundary HPD intervals in TS1

From: Modelling medieval masonry construction: taxa-specific and habitat-contingent Bayesian techniques for the interpretation of radiocarbon data from Mortar-Entrapped Relict Limekiln Fuels

Dataset and model specification

Last HPD intervals and medians/ cal AD

End Boundary HPD intervals and medians/cal AD

Agreement Indices

10yrs IAÏ„ (M1a)

Run

68%

95%

Median

68%

95%

Median

Amodel

Aoverall

Ai ≤ 60%

Exponential prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1235–1275

1230–1280

1265

127.1

124

0

 

2

-

-

-

1240–1275

1225–1280

1255

80.2

69

1

 

3

1240–1270

1225–1275

1255

1240–1270

1225–1280

1255

100.9

91.5

0

 

4

1240–1270

1225–1275

1255

1240–1270

1225–1275

1255

107.8

97.6

0

Exponential prior; 10-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1240–1280

1235–1285

1265

130.6

126.8

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1275

1230–1285

1260

81.3

71.7

1

 

3

1245–1275

1230–1280

1260

1245–1275

1230–1280

1260

101.8

94.1

0

 

4

1240–1270

1230–1280

1255

1240–1275

1230–1280

1255

108.3

99.9

0

Exponential prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1240–1280

1235–1285

1270

132.1

128.1

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1280

1230–1285

1260

84.7

75.6

1

 

3

1245–1275

1230–1285

1260

1245–1275

1230–1285

1260

104.7

98.2

0

 

4

1245–1275

1230–1280

1260

1245–1275

1230–1285

1260

111.2

104.3

0

Uniform prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1235–1280

1230–1285

1265

129.9

125.2

0

 

2

-

-

-

1240–1280

1225–1285

1260

86.4

61.8

2

 

3

1240–1275

1225–1280

1255

1240–1275

1225–1285

1260

94

72.7

3

 

4

1240–1270

1225–1280

1255

1240–1275

1225–1280

1255

97.8

78

2

Uniform prior; 10-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1240–1285

1235–1290

1270

131.1

126.4

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1280

1230–1290

1260

87.1

67.9

2

 

3

1240–1275

1230–1285

1260

1240–1275

1230–1285

1260

91.3

76

2

 

4

1240–1275

1225–1280

1255

1240–1275

1225–1285

1260

97.3

83

2

Uniform prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1255–1285

1235–1290

1270

134

129.1

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1285

1230–1295

1265

90.8

75.4

1

 

3

1245–1280

1230–1290

1265

1245–1280

1230–1295

1265

100.1

89.2

0

 

4

1245–1275

1230–1285

1260

1245–1280

1230–1290

1260

105.8

95.3

0

50yrs IAÏ„ (M1b)

Run

68%

95%

Median

68%

95%

Median

Amodel

Aoverall

Ai ≤ 60%

Exponential prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1240–1275

1230–1285

1255

92.5

91

0

 

2

-

-

-

1230–1265

1225–1285

1250

73.6

73.7

1

 

3

1220–1250

1220–1270

1240

1220–1255

1220–1275

1240

94.5

91.2

0

 

4

1235–1265

1225–1275

1250

1235–1270

1225–1280

1250

115.2

114.3

0

Exponential prior; 50-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1285

1235–1300

1265

92.9

91.2

0

 

2

-

-

-

1235–1275

1230–1295

1260

78.5

78

1

 

3

1225–1260

1220–1280

1245

1225–1260

1220–1280

1245

96

93.8

0

 

4

1240–1270

1230–1285

1255

1240–1275

1230–1290

1260

113.8

112.9

0

Exponential prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1285

1235–1300

1265

93.2

91.7

0

 

2

-

-

-

1240–1280

1230–1300

1260

80.2

79.8

1

 

3

1225–1260

1220–1280

1245

1225–1265

1220–1280

1250

96.5

94.5

0

 

4

1240–1275

1230–1290

1260

1240–1280

1230–1290

1260

114.2

113.5

0

Uniform prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1255–1290

1235–1305

1270

89.7

88.5

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1290

1230–1305

1270

76.5

75.2

2

 

3

1225–1260

1220–1275

1245

1225–1265

1220–1285

1250

83.6

79.2

2

 

4

1240–1270

1230–1280

1255

1240–1275

1230–1290

1260

57.7

58.9

1

Uniform prior; 50-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1255–1295

1235–1315

1275

89.1

87.8

0

 

2

-

-

-

1250–1300

1235–1320

1275

81.6

80.6

2

 

3

1230–1270

1220–1285

1250

1230–1270

1220–1290

1255

88.8

85.5

2

 

4

1245–1280

1230–1295

1265

1245–1285

1230–1305

1265

93

92.1

1

Uniform prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1255–1295

1240–1320

1280

90.6

89.4

0

 

2

-

-

-

1250–1300

1235–1320

1280

84.3

83.6

2

 

3

1230–1270

1220–1285

1250

1230–1270

1225–1290

1255

88.6

85.5

2

 

4

1245–1285

1230–1305

1265

1250–1290

1235–1315

1270

102.2

101.5

1

100yrs IAÏ„ (M1c)

Run

68%

95%

Median

68%

95%

Median

Amodel

Aoverall

Ai ≤ 60%

Exponential prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1240–1275

1230–1280

1255

99.1

98

0

 

2

-

-

-

1235–1270

1225–1285

1255

108.8

108.5

0

 

3

1240–1270

1225–1275

1255

1245–1275

1225–1290

1260

107.6

107.4

0

 

4

1230–1265

1220–1275

1245

1235–1270

1225–1280

1250

98.2

97

0

Exponential prior; 100-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1280

1230–1295

1265

101.1

99.7

0

 

2

-

-

-

1240–1280

1230–1300

1260

108.9

108.4

0

 

3

1245–1275

1225–1295

1260

1245–1285

1230–1305

1265

106.7

106.6

0

 

4

1235–1275

1225–1290

1260

1240–1280

1225–1300

1260

97.6

96.4

0

Exponential prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1280

1235–1290

1265

100.9

99.8

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1280

1230–1300

1265

108.9

108.8

0

 

3

1245–1275

1225–1295

1260

1245–1285

1230–1305

1265

106.8

106.6

0

 

4

1240–1275

1225–1295

1260

1240–1280

1225–1300

1265

97.7

96.7

0

Uniform prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1240–1285

1225–1295

1260

82.6

70.4

2

 

2

-

-

-

1250–1290

1235–1320

1275

69.3

70

1

 

3

1250–1275

1240–1280

1265

1255–1315

1240–1385

1285

94.8

94.8

0

 

4

1245–1275

1230–1280

1260

1250–1290

1230–1315

1270

85.2

85

1

Uniform prior; 100-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1250–1290

1235–1310

1270

96.5

92.9

0

 

2

-

-

-

1245–1295

1230–1330

1275

107.9

107.2

0

 

3

1250–1290

1235–1320

1270

1250–1295

1230–1325

1275

104.3

103.8

0

 

4

1245–1290

1230–1320

1270

1250–1300

1230–1335

1275

93.3

92.3

0

Uniform prior; Default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1250–1290

1235–1310

1270

96.3

92.5

0

 

2

-

-

-

1250–1300

1235–1335

1280

108.1

107.8

0

 

3

1255–1305

1240–1345

1285

1255–1310

1240–1350

1285

105

104.8

0

 

4

1250–1300

1230–1330

1280

1255–1310

1235–1345

1285

95

94.1

0

200yrs IAÏ„ (M1d)

Run

68%

95%

Median

68%

95%

Median

Amodel

Aoverall

Ai ≤ 60%

Exponential prior; no Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1220–1270

1190–1300

1245

96.5

96.7

0

2

-

-

-

1175–1220

1155–1250

1200

97.8

95.6

0

3

1220–1260

1200–1275

1235

1225–1270

1200–1300

1250

98.3

97.3

0

4

1185–1230

1170–1250

1210

1190–1235

1175–1260

1215

83.9

84.3

1

Exponential prior; 200-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1225–1285

1195–1330

1255

97.5

97

0

2

-

-

-

1180–1240

1160–1285

1210

97.9

95.7

0

3

1225–1275

1200–1320

1255

1230–1290

1210–1335

1265

98.9

98.3

0

4

1200–1260

1180–1280

1225

1200–1260

1185–1285

1235

89.8

89.8

1

Exponential prior; default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1230–1295

1200–1340

1265

97.5

97.6

0

2

-

-

-

1185–1240

1165–1285

1215

98.2

96.3

0

3

1225–1270

1210–1300

1250

1230–1285

1215–1320

1260

99.2

98.8

0

4

1195–1255

1180–1285

1230

1200–1260

1180–1290

1235

90

90.1

1

Uniform prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1230–1300

1205–1370

1270

97.9

98.1

0

 

2

-

-

-

1190–1250

1170–1290

1225

91.6

90.3

0

 

3

1230–1270

1215–1280

1250

1235–1300

1215–1365

1270

102.3

102

0

 

4

1205–1255

1180–1270

1225

1210–1270

1180–1300

1240

76.4

76

1

Uniform prior; 200-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1350

1220–1450

1305

97.4

97.3

0

 

2

-

-

-

1190–1265

1170–1315

1235

95.8

94.5

0

 

3

1235–1300

1215–1375

1270

1245–1335

1225–1420

1295

100

99.6

0

 

4

1220–1280

1190–1320

1250

1225–1295

1195–1345

1265

91.7

92.1

0

Uniform prior; default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1250–1355

1225–1425

1305

98.3

98.3

0

 

2

-

-

-

1205–1275

1175–1335

1240

92.4

91.4

0

500yrs IAÏ„ (M1e)

Run

68%

95%

Median

68%

95%

Median

Amodel

Aoverall

Ai ≤ 60%

exponential prior; no Outlier Model

1

-

 

-

1225–1300

1190–1370

1265

98

97.4

0

 

2

-

 

-

1225–1290

1195–1345

1260

99.2

98.8

0

 

3

1230–1295

1225–1300

1270

1255–1325

1225–1375

1290

97.4

97.2

0

 

4

1160–1230

1120–1265

1190

1170–1275

1120–1355

1225

95.4

95.9

0

Exponential prior; 500-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1235–1325

1200–1405

1285

98.4

97.9

0

 

2

-

-

-

1230–1310

1205–1375

1275

99

98.7

0

 

3

1255–1335

1225–1405

1295

1270–1365

1235–1440

1320

98.8

98.7

0

 

4

1165–1255

1110–1350

1210

1180–1300

1135–1420

1250

96.6

97.2

0

Exponential prior; default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1235–1325

1200–1400

1280

98.1

97.8

0

2

-

-

-

1230–1315

1205–1395

1280

99

98.7

0

3

1245–1335

1225–1415

1295

1270–1365

1235–1450

1320

98.6

98.6

0

4

1165–1260

1115–1345

1215

1180–1305

1140–1420

1250

96.6

97.1

0

Uniform prior; No Outlier Model

1

-

-

-

1230–1430

1205–1740

1345

99.2

99.1

0

 

2

-

-

-

1235–1380

1205–1605

1315

96.9

96.8

0

 

3

1260–1295

1225–1305

1275

1265–1370

1230–1500

1320

98

98.1

0

 

4

1170–1255

1150–1275

1210

1185–1385

1150–1665

1300

98.8

99

0

Uniform prior; 500-year Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1260–1585

1220–1870

1450

99.6

99.5

0

 

2

-

-

-

1270–1460

1240–1685

1375

98.1

98

0

 

3

1270–1405

1235–1535

1350

1300–1455

1265–1605

1390

99.6

99.7

0

 

4

1170–1285

1145–1490

1245

1215–1495

1170–1795

1375

99.8

99.8

0

Uniform prior; default Charcoal

1

-

-

-

1245–1470

1215–1790

1375

99.4

99.4

0

2

-

-

-

1265–1485

1230–1685

1405

97.5

97.6

0

3

1270–1410

1235–1535

1350

1295–1460

1265–1605

1395

99.5

99.5

0

4

1165–1350

1140–1625

1260

1220–1540

1175–1905

1405

99.6

99.8

0

  1. HPD intervals and median dates are rounded out to 5 years. Inaccurate HPD intervals (not including the 1250 AD true event date) and agreement indices less than 60% are reported in bold emphasis