Specified dataset IAÏ„ | Accuracy of Last HPD intervals | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exp. prior; no Outlier | Exp. prior; modified Charcoal | Exp. prior; default Charcoal | Uniform prior; no Outlier | Uniform prior; modified Charcoal | Uniform prior; default Charcoal | All models | ||
68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% (95%) | 68% | 95% | |
10Â years | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 100% | 100% |
50Â years | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 100% | 100% |
100Â years | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 92% | 100% |
200Â years | 1/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 2/2 (2/2) | 92% | 100% |
500Â years | 2/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 1/2 (2/2) | 58% | 100% |
All Datasets | 90% (100%) | 90% (100%) | 90% (100%) | 90% (100%) | 90% (100%) | 80% (100%) | 88% | 100% |