Assessing different measures of fire risk for Cultural World Heritage Sites

Heritage Science

Table 6 Fractional probit estimates of the medium high fire risk to Cultural World Heritage Sites.

Explanatory variables	Specification (i)		Specification (ii)
Explanatory variables	dy/dx	z-stat	dy/dx	z-stat
Area in hectares	0.000	0.02	0.000	0.41
Year inscribed	0.000	− 0.28	0.000	0.26
Danger list	0.057	0.50	0.036	0.32
Wood in buildings or on the site	− 0.036	− 1.05	0.016	0.42
Inscription criteria
C1 masterpiece of human creative genius	0.018	0.42	0.021	0.44
C2 architecture or technology, monumental arts, town-planning or landscape design	− 0.017	− 0.54	0.000	0.00
C3 cultural tradition or to a civilization	− 0.064**	− 2.58	− 0.040*	− 1.75
C4 building, architectural or technological ensemble or landscape	0.005	0.17	− 0.007	− 0.24
C5 traditional human settlement, land-use, or sea-use	− 0.013	− 0.24	0.027	0.43
C6 events or living traditions, ideas, beliefs, artistic and literary works	0.026	0.71	0.041	1.16
Kind of site
Cultural landscape (reference category: other)	0.000	− 0.01	− 0.024	− 0.63
City	− 0.016	− 0.57	− 0.007	− 0.25
Religious site	− 0.020	− 0.72	− 0.016	− 0.57
Transboundary	− 0.120	− 1.65	− 0.133*	− 1.76
Country group/location
North Europe (reference category: Western Europe)	− 0.153***	− 2.98
South Europe (incl. South France)	0.301***	4.14
Eastern Europe	− 0.037	− 0.56
Latitude			− 0.026***	− 8.85
Number of observations	346		346
McFadden’s Pseudo R²	0.23		0.21

Asterisks ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels. dy/dx denotes the marginal effects. The underlying dependent variable is the proportion of the medium–high fire risk category. Non-European Cultural World Heritage Sites are not included. Estimated with STATA using the fracreg probit estimation command